Tensions are escalating in the Korean peninsula and matters have not been helped by the recent recommendation from Pyongyang that foreign missions evacuate their diplomatic personnel, because "we cannot guarantee their safety beyond April 10", which is the likely date that will trigger conflict.
North Korea has a history of making major moves on dates of significance to members of the ruling Kim family, and it seems the number nine has some significance also, but the mid-April timeline might have more to do with an anniversary of Kim Jong-un's grandfather, Kim Il-sung. Whatever the case, they are ramping things up considerably with chilling warnings to the British and Russian embassies to get their people out - a move which as of today still seems to be being taken as pure rhetoric and no one is moving anywhere for the moment.
That this 28-year-old kid is at the helm of such an unstable and militarily top-heavy regime seems like a bad joke. Make that an extremely bad joke, and one that may be coming to a head with all the recent chest-beating, anti-USA ranting and movement of missiles and components to the east coast - no doubt to imply an imminent strike against Japan or Guam. North Korea's statement that it also intends to reactivate its nuclear program is hardly encouraging either, even if today it is accurate to say that they do not have the capacity to deliver such a weapon on USA soil.
The recent combined exercises by the USA and South Korea militaries in the region seems to have only incensed Jong-un further; the mere sight of the frightening B2 stealth bomber in the air was an ominous event but rather than serving as a deterrent it seems to have raised the thermometer by more than a few degrees.
North Korea said today that it was entering a "state of war" with the South over increasingly tight United Nations sanctions imposed following the nuclear test in February, as well as in response to the joint military drills being carried out as a show of strength. The new leader of South Korea, speaking in Seoul, said that the south will strike back immediately following any military aggression from the north.
China is a very dominant player in this scenario and Obama's move to get them on board by joining forces in not only condemning the destabilizing warnings and threats of North Korea, but also in providing military force if necessary, would seem to be a smart move. If the south, China and the USA all stand together, what outcome could Kim Jong-un possibly foresee, except the total obliteration of his regime and the infrastructure that it teeters on.
It would be nothing more than total proof of his own lack of leadership and intellect if he were to sanction strikes of any nature. The fact that the USA military has been stretched by being involved in two wars in the middle east over many years might suggest that it's the right time to take advantage of the situation, but I think it might only signal that the machine has been well oiled of late and any rustiness is gone. The west's patience level in any new war started by North Korea would be at an all-time low in my opinion, and I would expect to see a flattening of
a nation with what would probably be record speed.
One has to pray that someone with a brain in the north's regime will stop this despot from doing anything (else) stupid, thereby preventing what will be the most explosive "shock and awe" response ever seen. I still tend to think that Kim Jong-un is just another blowhard, but this time he has painted himself into the corner somewhat, and he almost seems forced to do something or be seen as a total joke and bullshitter, even in his own country. If you order foreign missions to empty their embassies, and then you do nothing, you are only going to become the subject of ridicule - perhaps even among the military and its top brass, and that is untenable in the North Korean playbook.
Let's just say that it's going to be an interesting week around the corner, to say the least. One cannot help (hope) but feel that common sense will prevail, and that this false start might teach the volatile North Korean regime that leading the country into certain annihilation does not achieve anything other than underlining their own idiocy - an idiocy that must be condemned not only for its existence but also prevented from ever being in a position to act on it, militarily at least.
In the meantime, it's the weekend, so after dealing with such heavyweight matters I think we all deserve a cup of tea and a thick slice of chocolate tart! - Kevin Mc
No comments:
Post a Comment