What's going on at NBC's flagship morning news franchise, the "Today" show? We have reported on this affair before, around the time of the unceremonious exit of Ann Curry at the hands of Jim Bell (and if you believe the whsipers, with a certain Matt Lauer pulling the strings), but rather than progress the show has been on a more or less constant slide ever since.
NBC is not known in recent times for being a great handler of talent: the Jay Leno-Conan fiasco, the Ann Curry debate/debacle and more recently their own Jenna Wolfe, instantaneously demoted from the anchor seat alongside Lester Holt on "Weekend Today", to being just the newsreader.They drafted in respected but bland Erica Hill from CBS (This Morning) and Jenna was kicked back to the news desk, which she clearly felt upset about.
But you see? In a giant corporation like NBC Universal, it's firstly about the ratings, then it's about the ratings, and in fact, it's always about the ratings. It's got way less to do with being a respected journalist or broadcaster than it has to do with that horrible word, ratings. Why? Well, because unless you are very popular with the audience, and particular demographics of that audience, the numbers begin to slip and advertisers are not getting bang for their buck. So the execs start whispering.
It was all very well when the competition was weak, but finally some people woke up at ABC and CBS and shook up their respective "Good Morning America" (GMA) and "This Morning" shows. The whole Ann Curry affair arose out of the fact that Today was slipping, and GMA in particular had made significant inroads. Now, let me be clear, while Ann was undoubtedly popular, I was not a huge fan because I found her gaffes too frequent and too obvious for an anchor at that level. She couldn't say "Welcome to Today" properly and in my book that alone was reason enough to replace her. Additionally, she often became too sympathetic to those she was interviewing which got in the way of journalistic intervention, and nobody wants to see a big sad face at 7:19am on a Monday morning!
Many felt that she was Matt Lauer's (among other) scapegoat at the time, and you could almost sense the relief on the couch as Ann announced her departure. It was a horrific display of discomfort on a comfy primetime sofa. But I did warn at the time, beware further falling ratings, people, because guess what chaps? The spotlight turns firmly and squarely onto your shoulders next!
My "men on the street" informed me that Ann Curry felt a great degree of vindication when the show failed to produce a ratings shine at the Olympics last summer - an event from which Curry was excluded. They even flew over Hoda Kotb at the last minute, from her holidays, to try to jump start some excitement over in London. But it didn't work and by any large the event did not live up to NBC expectations. Who can blame Ann for smirking even a little?
We then moved on more squarely to the new era of Matt Lauer and Savannah Guthrie. Unquestionably, the two work well together and have acceptable chemistry on screen, but something is still not quite right. It almost seems as if Matt, now advancing in years with his "new boy" status decades behind him, actually needs an older woman who outranks him in experience and journalistic chops. He seems to need that challenge if only because it prevents him from being "glib" (as Tom Cruise called him) in assessing a younger host's performance rather than focusing on his own. Meredith Vieira was a total pro, and Matt had to work to keep up.
It seems that between them, "Today" show executive producer Jim Bell, NBC Universal CEO Steve Burke, NBC News President Steve Capus and talking head Lauer seem to be incapable of resolving the issue and getting it right. We now hear that Bell is out, and will be replaced with Alexandra Wallace, who is known to be an Ann Curry fan, which I hear has incensed Lauer. There are even rumors that Alexandra intends to address how Lauer is used on the show, in a fashion that our Matt is not going to like.
But you know? If Ann Curry was not the problem, which ultimately implies that neither can it be Savannah Guthrie, then where is the problem? As I predicted many months ago, people are beginning to look at Lauer. When you see old footage of Matt, you can see why he rose so rapidly. He was young, relatively handsome, competent and fun. But today many say they find him arrogant, pompous, self-satisfied and glib. I suppose that's what $25-30M a year will do to an average guy whose main task is being capable of reading a teleprompter accurately, with an earpiece giving him timing cues. Brain surgery nor even dentistry, it sure ain't!
Yes, I may be simplifying the job just a little, but only a little! It requires neither great intellect nor great physical skills, two talents that bring huge amounts of money with them in various professions. But for many types in entertainment, it's only money that dictates where you stand on the socioprofessional ladder, so I suppose he lets some of that ridiculous sum of money go to his head. But even he is not immune to scrutiny.
“This problem is not going to go away until Matt Lauer does,” an esteemed former NBC News executive told the Daily News this week. “He’s great, but fairly or unfairly, his brand is damaged.”
This is quite a provocative statement indeed, and yet it appears to be mirrored by many. His image is unlikely to be helped by recent reports coming out of Rockefeller Plaza that unlike his more famous colleague, Jay Leno, Lauer point blank refused to take a pay cut to offset belt tightening by the studio. The result? A whole slew (as many as 500 staffers) of studio crew are at risk of being laid off before Christmas. When Leno took a hefty 50% reduction on the "Tonight" show he personally trimmed the budget by a solid 20%, singlehandedly saving dozens of jobs. Now that's something! The fact that many staffers blame Lauer directly (as well as for his role in the ouster of Ann Curry) for the ratings slump makes his refusal to take a cut to save their jobs particularly insulting.
I have heard speculation on the similarly prevalent rise of a certain new charmer among the ranks at NBC News - we are of course talking about Willie Geist, who I personally see as the future of the "Today" show if Matt leaves or is exited, like the curry. Of course, NBC will have to shell out big bucks to get rid of Lauer because his contract is an entirely different affair from Ann Curry, but when you see what Conan got to make him go away, you realize that cash is not the determining factor for NBC.
In fact, it is estimated that profits from advertising revenue on the "Today" show in 2011 were of the order of $500M. We are talking stupid money here, so paying severances is way less of an issue than is losing even more of the slice of the pie to GMA, who have been grabbing a bigger slice recently than in the last 15 years and more. It is a crisis for folks at NBC, and something is going to be done about it and soon.
Alexandra Wallace is an Ann Curry fan who is ten years younger than Lauer and who is very close with Steve Capus - I expect there to be fireworks, almost from the start. Matt Lauer may experience the fact that he does not reign supreme for the first time in decades, nor is he truly indispensable (anymore) with both slipping ratings and a Willie Geist snipping at his heels. Today on Today? Willie is by far the most likable of the two, while being equally professional and similarly journalistic. The future is his, if he reaches out and takes it!
Humility is something that we all probably struggle with at some point or another. When one is earning something ridiculous like $2M per month, then I guess it is rather easy to start believing the hype, and happily pointing out what the problems are with this person's performance, or that one's. All very well, until your own arrogance gets in the way of seeing what is wrong with you. In TV, maintaining audience buy-in is critical, and if you lose it, you better face it.
"Does he still wear his Livestrong rubber wristband, I wonder?", someone asked recently when considering the black cloud that he now brings to the show. It's a very interesting question actually, for a few reasons. How great is it to "live strong" while you selfishly line your own pockets at the expense of others, and even look down upon those whom you may have ridden over and/or cheated? That's not gonna inspire anyone, nor should it.
We can all use a wake-up call when our success goes to our heads, even a little. It is always best to remember that the adage is 100% true - no one is ever indispensable. How are Apple surviving after Steve Jobs, or how do GE make it without Jack Welch? Talking heads are way down the food chain from these heights, and they come and they go with great frequency. Ask Oprah, who got her "own" lesson in being humble after the various false starts at OWN.
However, one thing is also true. The Evergreen Umbrella blog does need me, honestly, and if they decide to replace me with another pair of talking hands, well, I want an exit deal that is comparable to the one likely to be offered to Matt Lauer, so we can both go off sailing in the Caribbean on Monday morning! ;) - Kevin Mc